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Emerging Environmental Concerns
N. R. Krishnan
When we talk of energy, one is
faced with three problems:
Air pollution arising out of use of coal or oil; and
Global warming due to the ‘greenhouse effect’
Ever since the publication of
the report ‘Limits to Growth’ by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
nearly three decades ago, the world has been concerned with the finiteness of
fossil fuel availability. The report came out with the finding that at the then
current and projected future rates of consumption, the known oil resources would
last not more than four or five decades. The two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979
also made the world cautious of oil supplies. Estimates made by the US
Geological Survey (1994-95) of the remaining recoverable conventional oil and
natural gas resources (103 Exa Joules; 1 Exa Joule = 1019 Joules) were as
below:-
|
Estimate |
Conventional Oil |
Conventional Natural Gas |
|
High |
13.7 |
16.5 |
|
Low |
9.4 |
8.7 |
From the projections of
consumption made by World Energy Council, only an ecologically driven
consumption scenario would be compatible with the above figures of recoverable
reserves of oil. The position with regard to gas is, of course, a little better.
Coal, though available in
plenty, shares the problem of air pollution with oil. Coal and oil based power
generation gives rise to local, national and even trans-boundary air pollution
problems. Acidification resulting from deposition of sulphur dioxide given out
by burning of fossil fuels is a felt problem in many parts of the world.
According to an estimate, many parts of Asia including north-east India would
experience excess deposition of sulphur dioxide by the year 2020.
All the fossil fuels
give rise to carbon dioxide on burning. This gas goes up in the atmosphere and
remains chemically stable for long years. This causes a greenhouse effect
wherein the gas acts as a shield preventing the dissipation of heat from the
earth. As a result, global surface temperatures may rise. It has been recorded
that the global surface temperature rose by 0.3 0C
to 0.60C in the last 100 years. Further, global sea levels have risen by 10 cm
to 25 cm in the same period. These observations correspond with the increase in
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from 280 parts / million by volume
in the 18th century to 360 parts / million today. During the 21st century,
further temperature increase of 10C to 3.50C has been predicted.
The impact of global warming can
be quite adverse. Natural disasters such as droughts, floods and forest fires
will occur with greater frequency than today. The rise of sea levels could
inundate large areas of coastal land and submerge small islands. Extreme weather
changes will cause migration of people. The composition of forests may change
and certain types of forests will disappear altogether. Many changes in the
plant kingdom have already come to notice. Only recently, 300 species of plants
have been reported to have bloomed early in 2002 in Britain where the
temperatures in the first three months of this year have been the highest
recorded so far.
The impact of global warming
will be quite adverse to India in that there would be inundation of coastal
areas which support large populations and there could be changes in the monsoon
patterns. In a country where over 60% of the people depend on agriculture for
their livelihood, the consequences of even small changes in climate or rainfall
patterns may be significant.
The environmental impact of
fossil fuel use can thus be quite significant. At the same time, keeping in mind
the imperative of economic growth, a judicious mix of policies and measures is
required to promote Sustainable Development. The following measures may be
considered.
Efficiency improvements in
production of energy carriers:
In the US and OECD countries,
efficiency of electricity generation from fossil fuels increased from an average
of 4% in 1900 to 32% in 1960. There is considerable scope for increasing
efficiencies in coal based power generation in India.
Improvements in the efficiency
of energy end-use technologies:
The average energy efficiency of motor cars (km/litre)
in the US in 1995 was 70% higher than in 1973. Specific energy consumption
can be reduced by 20% to 50%
in existing installations and by 50% to 90% in new installations. There is
considerable scope for reduction in energy inputs per unit of output in Indian
industry, e.g. in cement industry, efficient units in India consume only
85 to 90 Kwh of electricity per ton of cement produced compared to 125 to 130
Kwh consumed by inefficient units. A host of technologies is available for
energy reduction in the manufacture of almost all products.
In India, commercial fuels accounted for 26% of the total
energy supply in 1950-51. This rose to 68% in 1996-97. Correspondingly, the
share of non-commercial fuels (fuel wood, cow dung, crop residues) fell from 74%
to 32% in this period. However, the huge quantity of about 160 million tonnes of
fuel wood being consumed in the country poses serious problems for the health of
forests. This quantity is far above the sustainable supply from forests.
The luxurious
tents pitched just off the greens, Amby Valley, Sahara Lake City
Despite the impressive start made in the promotion
of non-conventional energy sources like wind power and solar energy, the
contribution of these sources to the overall energy requirements of the country
is bound to be small indeed in the foreseeable future. Much the same is true of
nuclear power. As per the Hydrocarbon Vision document prepared by the Planning
Commission, coal would still account for 50% of energy requirements in the year
2025, followed by oil at about 30%. These estimates would show that
environmental problems associated with the use of coal and oil for power
generation, transportation, industrial, commercial and domestic uses would need
to be addressed in greater measure in the coming years.
The potential for development of hydro sources for
power generation is high in India. Hydro power is environmentally clean and
operationally more economic compared to coal based thermal power. However, the
construction of large hydro power projects poses problems of displacement of
large populations and their resettlement and rehabilitation. Looking to the
advantages of hydro power in a country poor in oil and gas resources, the
available hydro power potential would need to be harnessed in a manner
compatible with the welfare and well being of the project affected populations.
Shri. N. R. Krishnan, I.A.S. (Retd.)
As Secretary to Ministry of
Environment and Forests, Government of India, Mr. Krishnan is a pioneer in
environmental policy & strategy formulation
& implementation. He has led the Indian delegation to UNEP governing
council, the commission on Sustainable Development and the Montreal Protocol. He
is currently serving NetPEM as an advisor. | 
